# Ponder the Unthinkable (pt1)



## Winston (Mar 25, 2014)

Basic physics dictates that a body in motion, stays in motion.  The often 
forgotten qualifier in that statement is "until acted upon by another force".

Civilized society has been in motion for quite some time.  Unseen and 
largely unexpected forces often slow our progress, and sometimes we are completely 
stopped, and pushed back.  It's a hard concept to swallow,  but look back just a few 
hundred years ago.  "The Little Ice Age" caused widespread food supply disruption, 
including the infamous potato blight and famine in Ireland.   Centuries before that, The 
Black Death killed off so many people, it was the first time in recorded history the 
population on Earth shrank.  Now, historians and archeologists have discovered that The 
Egyptian Empire fell due a series of cascading events.  Climate change caused famine, 
and famine brought about civil war.

In just these examples, note just how many factors can individually disrupt 
society.  Also, contemplate how they can combine, and cascade into a system-wide 
failure that causes death and disruption.

The above mentioned historical events are seen by many as non-
reoccurring,  isolated events.  It's true that no event replicates itself entirely in history.  
For example, we'll never have another Black Death.  The Bubonic Plague's causes and it's 
prevention procedures are well understood today.  It's very unlikely that louse carrying 
rats will migrate to Europe on trade caravans from Asia.  Also, modern farming and 
advances in biology make a potato famine unlikely.  Despite Egypt's many current 
problems, a long-tem drought will not kill many in that region.  Global food 
availability will offset any regional disruption.  

	For the average citizen of the modern, developed world, denial is more 
than just the river in Egypt. For many, it's a way of life.  Disease, famine, war and a host 
of assorted unforeseen disasters lurk like a silent predator.  We chew our cud, never 
knowing when we'll be pounced on.   It's like everyone thinks they're living on a game 
preserve, where events are regulated by benevolent masters.  Only, things aren't as 
regulated as most people believe.  And you are not prey.  

Let's look at those previous examples.  We may never have another potato 
blight, but a rice or wheat blight is likely.  As more and more farmers rely on GMO 
crops, genetic diversity and overall crop resistance is weakened.  As a greater percentage 
of each crop shares the same genetic structure, the chances increase that a virulent, 
opportunistic disease wiping out large portions of our food supply.   Oh, I'm sure we'd 
eventually beat that blight.  But what about the short-term effects of YOUR food supply?  
Also, what if that blight was just the opening salvo of a protracted war?  The next strain 
may be more virulent, perhaps even genetically engineered by... someone.  

Our medical knowledge and abilities far surpasses anything  mankind 
dreamed of hundreds of years ago.  Unfortunately,  that knowledge may be the rope that a 
disease may hang-us with.  Since so many diseases have been virtually wiped-out in 
modern society. the average citizen has little or no immunity to many deadly viruses.  We 
no longer vaccinate against Polio, yet a new Polio-like disease has just surfaced in San 
Francisco.  We're not sure how contagious this strain is, but you may want to rethink that 
you're safer once you get to the hospital.  Drug-resistant infections are becoming more 
and more common in many hospitals.  Wanna get away?  We no longer use camel 
caravans, but an Airbus or Boeing jetliner can vector hosts from airport to airport, 
spreading a virulent disease for days before the first symptom manifests.

It is the complexity of our society that most endangers us.  In it's heyday, the 
Egyptians were unassailable.  Their military was unsurpassed, their political and social 
structure solid and their economy was very healthy.  Yet, at some point, it went wrong.  
Historians believe that the unprecedented back-to-back droughts hit the peripheral Nile 
cities first.  The starving refugees overwhelmed the shaky larger cities, depleting their 
granaries.  The economy crumbled, the political structure collapsed.  Chariots and 
outposts went unmanned.  Egypt eventually reemerged as a weak, diminished power. For 
us, a cyber attack?  Perhaps a well placed Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP)?  What could be 
the catalyst?  The list is endless,  unlike our resources.  Or your time to prepare.


	Be honest with yourself.  Are you in denial?  There are so, so many things that 
could co terribly wrong in a modern society.  The term "doomsday" is thrown about like 
some absurd boogey-man, numbing our senses and diminishing the real possibility of a 
catastrophic event.  Unfortunately, people tend to push most events into two extremes.  
The first is a "simple" disaster, say, an earthquake or hurricane.  If you survive the initial 
event, help will be on the way within days, maybe just hours.  The other extreme would 
be an asteroid impact or global nuclear war.  You probably won't survive the initial event, 
and long term survival is sketchy.

Seeing things in this silly dialectic, people buy into the lie of omission.   The 
reality is that there are many, many scenarios that fall between each extreme.  Denying 
the possibility of a medium-sized, persistent duration disaster is as absurd as it is 
dangerous.  We deal with hurricanes all the time, then a "Katrina" type event occurs.  
And no one expected a tsunami to wipe out Fukushima's cooling system. 

Of course, it's easy to do nothing if you limit your options to either "someone will 
save me" or, "I'll just die:.  Sometimes, life requires some work.  And actually, it might 
not require as much work as you think.  But you must do something.  

The first thing you must do is decide that your life is worth investing in.  I know 
this sounds trite, but it's worth examining.  Disasters impact different people in different 
ways.  Perhaps you pull through a mega-quake unscathed, and so does your elderly 
father.  You can make it to the FEMA food line, but what about him?  Is it the 
government's responsibility to take care of your old man?  Depending on how you answer 
that question, you can stop reading now.

We all rely on each other.  But the fact remains that a small segment of the 
population cannot support the rest.  This is true in normal times, but more acute during 
times of emergency.  If you care about others, you'll learn how to take care of yourself.  
Period.  If you're a selfish, delusional child that thinks others should take care of them, 
good luck with that.

(On this topic, I occasionally get the "light-hearted" response by acquaintances 
that "If something happens, I'm coming to your house. My response is, "Sure, as long as 
you bring your own truck full of supplies.")

There is a certain moral calculus inherent in such discussions as this.  Some will 
find it unfair that while many die, some may live.  The absurd counterpoint would be that 
it would be more fair if all died.  Occasionally, I encounter the nonsensical statement that 
"I wouldn't want to live in a world like that."  That's your choice, albeit self-centered and 
short-sighted.  People generally want to live.  The closer they come to losing their life, 
the more precious it becomes and the tighter they grasp.

Corporal Smith was 6'2", all muscle, from a farm in Georgia.  Our Company was 
performing water survival training in Panama.  Smith couldn't swim.  He was a Marine, 
and never learned to swim (irony).  With trepidation, he put on his flotation device, 
assured by the instructor that Smith could dog paddle to shore.  Seconds after jumping 
into that muddy river, Smith's eyes grew wide.  A couple of other Jarheads and me swam 
over to Smith to calm him.  I think you know where this is going.

I nearly drown that day.  Three of us towed Smith to shore, eventually.  Here's the 
point:  You never know when you'll need to abandon ship.  You'll never know how far 
you'll need to swim.  You don't know someone will be nearby, willing and able to help.  
You have the right to drown.  You do not have the right to drag others down with you.
　


Now, at this moment, you have the ability to prepare for numerous, unforeseen 
emergencies.   Your choice now, or lack thereof, reveals much more of your character 
than any event will reveal in the future.  When people are scared and desperate, they lash 
out like a drowning man.  It's instinct.  You can choose to overcome that base behavior 
with a simple commitment.  A wise man once said, "If you choose not to decide, you still 
have made a choice."  O.K., that was from Geddy Lee of Rush.  Wisdom is where you 
find it.

I'm offering a simple set of instructions, points and directions, applicable to 
numerous scenarios. No, you will not survive an alien invasion.  The Mayans were 
wrong.  Zombies aren't real (sorry). And if Planet X does swing back by Earth's orbit, all 
bets are off.  For the other events that are a bit more likely,  you can make it.  You can 
help others.  You can be ready to rebuild and make the world a better place.  Or not.  

Your choice.


----------



## Plasticweld (Mar 25, 2014)

Isn't if funny that when you talk about the future and any possible calamity your are an alarmist. If you do more than talk about it and prepare you are a survivalist.  If talk about all that go wrong you are a pessimist.  If you talk about it, prepare for it and it does happen, your the guy with the food and the shelter. 

I do like going back into history to gain insight into what is going on. You make many points, none new to me but perhaps to others who chose to ignore history there will be a spark to learn more.


----------



## LeeC (Mar 25, 2014)

I'll bet you've gotten into Jared Diamond's books, in a mix with the likes of Hume, Unger, and maybe even La Mettrie 

A point of view articulated well, no nits here, but more of a window on your perspective than impactful, or insightful. The ending no more than one could come to (which no doubt you struggled with), given your lead up. 

No disrespect or disparagement is intended here, as it's encouraging to see such attempts of conveyance. The reason I'm commenting, is that it struck me yet again that I don't see any of this ilk of writing encompassed by the framework of physical life we're flitting through. That is the innate drives of the natural order, and their purposes in achieving some measure of balance in the web-of-life, to facilitate ongoing renewal of life overall, or even some of the inherent mechanisms like trophic levels.

Mightn't striving to convey better understanding of the natural world, and our place in it, be an important aspect in your "You can help others. You can be ready to rebuild and make the world a better place."

Having gotten part way there (from what I see), it's a gulf you could speak to. You certainly seem to care.

My best to you and yours,
LeeC


----------



## Winston (Mar 26, 2014)

@Plasticweld:  You get it.  This was an into. / appetizer.  For those with an appetite, the meat will follow.

@LeeC:  I was into "hybrids" way before the Prius, so to speak.  I'm not a Malthus guy, but if society doesn't start some changes on it's own, soon, some choices will be made for us.  If we don't start blending a bit of "old-school' self sufficiency into society, the ride back to 1850 will be swift and ugly.  I'll be offering some little nuggets I've picked-up.  If one or two people find my words useful, it is well.


----------



## Pandora (Mar 26, 2014)

I like your insightful read and small humorous moments to lighten. I am listening Winston and look forward to pt 2. 
'Better safe than sorry' something I've played my 58 years, gambler I am not. I do believe in a plan, for me that is God's Plan
which means I'm ready when He is, still selfish enough though to want to be a hero. Thanks Winston this will follow me through my day and
beyond.


----------



## Divus (Mar 30, 2014)

Winston - obviously you had a destination in mind for your work.   Personally having lived through one major war and one prolonged cold war I have developed a fatalist attitude towards accidents ie never be found standing in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Your article needs some minor editing for spelling mistakes but on the whole it reads well.    I am not quite happy about you occasionally swopping from written word to spoken word.

But please, not too much of the gloom and doom.   For we inhabitants of the West can enjoy a pretty good lifestyle if we adopt a positive outlook.


----------



## Winston (Mar 30, 2014)

/\ Thanks Divus.
As someone who has primarily lived in the abundant and safe world of the West, I do have a positive outlook.  I thank God daily for my fortune and His mercy.
As someone who has frequently visited the euphemistically tagged "developing nations", I've developed a sense of realism.
We in The West have much to learn from our brothers in other parts of the world.  I do not expect, nor hope that tragedy will fall on any of us.  I simply assert that, over time, it becomes more and more likely for a catastrophic event to impact a large area.  
I've always been a fighter.  Fighting is a skill.  I'm willing to share my knowledge.  
Divus, I'm not too worried about you (you give the impression that you can take care of yourself).  Still, we can all learn.  And be ready for the unexpected.

Part Two is coming up shortly.  I appreciate everyone's comments.


----------



## qwertyportne (Dec 7, 2014)

Thanks for referring me to your series of articles, Winston. I know you recently posted Part 10, but I'm going to begin here and work my way through them one at a time.

As you know, I also believe in being prepared for emergencies, short-term or long, local or global. At some point in the life of every problem, it's big enough to see but still small enough to fix. My understanding of EMP attacks, for example, is that they might not just take us back to the 19th century. More like the dark ages, because most Americans don’t have the know-how or the resources of even a 19th century lifestyle. Who has a horse and a plow? Who has seeds to plant and a well for water? Who knows how to preserve food without a refrigerator? Who knows how or where to dig a well? Who has enough land to support a family with crops, cattle and chickens? Who knows how to milk a cow? Who has a cow or a chicken? Most of us could survive without aspirin but how many would die without their prescription medication? Who knows how to deal with medical conditions using natural methods? Can you set a bone or suture a wound? Et cetera...


----------

