# Groundhog Day â€“ Fifty Percent Chance of Weather



## Jeff Tompkins (Feb 2, 2009)

*Groundhog Day – Fifty Percent Chance of Weather*

I write a humor column for a local paper and also am syndicated in a few other publications. I thought I'd share my latest column with you guys. Thanks for reading.

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Today is Groundhog Day, which is a special day commemorated each year when Bill Murray comes out of retirement and if he sees the shadow of at least one member of the paparazzi, America sighs and says, “Six more years of HIM?”

I kid Bill Murray. Not actually in person, although I theoretically could because he is sometimes spotted in the Charleston area. Not that if I saw him I would walk up to him and make a joke about his career and the movie that was named after this day. He probably hears stuff like that all the time and would punch me in the mouth and then I’d be involved in a huge lawsuit against Bill Murray and…maybe I’ll rethink this. I could use the money.

Anyway, it’s Groundhog Day, and if you watch your local news you are no doubt going to be bombarded with news about Punxsutawney Phil, a real-life biologically viable groundhog who hopefully will one day come out of his hole and bite a local weatherman on the nose, delivering years of long-overdue justice.

The official website of Punxsutawney Phil declares him to be the “world's most famous weather-forecasting groundhog.” Are there other, less famous ones? Is there some kind of groundhog celebrity feud going on that I am not aware of because I don’t watch enough of the “E!” channel? I am going to have to look into this, as I am suddenly concerned that there is a story here, something of vital cultural importance that could constitute enough words to comprise a column that I will get paid to write.

For now, we'll just have to go with what we've got.

The plastic-smile local news people started talking about Groundhog Day yesterday, making a big deal about this tradition and while listening to them, I realized that using a groundhog to predict the weather is probably not a bad idea. Could it really be far off from the forecasts we get from his human counterparts in the weather industry?

I know what you meteorologists are thinking: "You’ve written about forecasting before, and we don’t like what you say about our profession, and you know this because several of us have written angry emails to you about it."

Yes, I remember very clearly. And it’s partly why I’m writing this today.

If I had the investigative skills of a real journalist (or an interest in so-called “factual, accurate reporting” ha ha ha!) I would look up some stats to prove that I am right when I say that your forecasts are no more scientifically reliable than Punxsutawney Phil’s. But in keeping with my usual formula of making up stats that suit what I am currently writing, I will report here that the groundhog is correct 85% of the time and the human forecasters are correct only 50% of the time. So there you have it.

Maybe we could simultaneously improve the forecasting and boost the ratings of local TV news (currently hovering around zero) by replacing all TV weather personalities with animals. Because, as we all know, local TV news NEVER has enough animal stories. (I made up that fact. They have far too many animal stories. They cover them in order to use phrases like “gone to the dogs” and other severely overused clichés.)

People would tune in to watch this, not only because it would be far more entertaining than watching an overly hair-sprayed guy pointing at a map with a bunch of arrows that no one understands, but also because they’d have the opportunity to get their own pets on TV.

Imagine a local newscast in which the anchor turns and says, “Here with your forecast is Spike, a local dog who can tell if it’s going to rain or shine depending on which milk-bone he picks up. And he’s off! There he goes, toward the “rain bone,” and…he’s making a turn toward the “shine bone”! Folks, we could have two days of…hey, why is he squatting? NO! Not in here, Spike!”

At least that’s how I hope it would go.

For now, unfortunately, we will have to settle for just one animal forecaster, who, I just learned, saw his shadow (or didn’t see his shadow) which means we will have six more weeks (or months) of winter (or not). Something like that. I am not sure exactly what happened, nor am I sure what we are to expect in the way of weather. Sort of like I feel after I watch the human weather personalities.

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Most of my columns are on my blog. Thanks for any interest, feedback, etc.


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## T.N. Kettman (Feb 2, 2009)

I enjoyed this.  I really like your sarcastic style.  The title is perfect.   The last paragraph is hysterical.


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## Jeff Tompkins (Feb 3, 2009)

Thanks, T.N. Kettman. I appreciate the feedback!


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