# State of the Publishing Industry? + My Thoughts (1 Viewer)



## Man From Mars (Nov 20, 2011)

So my question could probably fill a book's worth, but I'm going to put it out there anyways.

What's the state of the publishing industry? Is it viable in a recession, especially when the alternatives become more appealing by the year?

I have a ton of things on my mind right now and I need to get them out. For months I've thought about the subject and I desperately need a different perspective on this. The big question on my mind is to choose self-publishing and promote it myself, or to try the traditional publishing route. I know there're costs and benefits to both, but my biggest focus is on the market, and on a macro level, the economy as a whole. I'm looking at this like an entrepreneur. 

Here are the factors I've got in my head.

First, even before the recession (and I can only speak from an American perspective) print was starting to go downhill with the emergence of viable self-publishing options and e-books. Now that the economy is in a slump, the already contracting print industry is circling the drain, that is unless publishers can adapt to online books. Keep in mind that I am NOT an industry insider, however I don't know if print can successfully contract and change well-entrenched business models (and connections) at the same time. Maybe they can, but I don't know, and the lack of information is killing me. If they can't adapt, then might self-publishing be more viable?

Second, what are the trends? Print is down. The internet and especially online marketplaces are more accessible thanks to e-books and the increasing popularity of tablets. The trend (in my own projection) is that the technology will only become more popular as devices are made smaller and more powerful and as wireless networks get more extensive. People may just get their books wherever they want from their tablet or phone, which means an online marketplace.

Third, I wonder what the market is doing. People in general don't read, but of the people who do, what do they read? My genre is science fiction, so what is the best way to get sci-fi into the hands of those who want it? Book stores? Internet? Keeping the economic climate in mind, what will people do for entertainment on a tight budget? Internet is one of the last things people would cut, which leans towards online marketplaces for books, which then leads me to believe that self-publishing might be the way to go. But again, I just don't know.

If you've made it to this part of my ramblings then thank you. I don't know what to do at this point. My plan at the moment is to get my query nice and polished and start sending it out. If I don't get a response, then it means the choice has been made for me. However even if I do get accepted by an agent, it takes some time for them to get a manuscript into the hands of publishers, negotiated, and then sold. That'd be fine if I wasn't dirt @ss poor. I'm figuring that maybe I can get it ready in a month and self published, promote it on my own, and maybe have some immediate results. But that's still not certain.

In short, I just don't grok it. But if you have a different perspective, anecdote, whatever, please let me know. I'd appreciate the information.


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## Winston (Nov 20, 2011)

I'd like to boost your confidence, but my real world experience paints a harsh picture.

I also write science fiction.  I did my research and queried numerous agents representing the genre.  Here's the scoop:  If you're not well established at this moment, forget about breaking-in.  In this economy, publisher's aren't taking chances.  Agents know this, and won't waste their time representing an unknown.
You have a better chance if your sub-specialty is soft sci-fi, fantasy or steampunk.  Hard sci-fi is selling like Solyndra stock.

If you're in it for the money, sell-out and write some pap.  Look at the average person, and their intelligence level.  If you write down to that, you can sell books.

I'm looking at self-publishing.  The problem is, you need to have a good marketing plan (i.e. social networking).  Hence, I'm still sitting on my manuscript.  No money in it, 'cept for the top 5% or so.  Most downloads are 99 cents to $5.  The site takes 20%, if I remember.  After you sell to your friends & family, you haven't made much.

I'll let someone with a rosier outlook take over now.  Welcome, and good luck.


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## John Brightman (Nov 21, 2011)

I'm currently going the self publishing route. I have had some success selling books when I meet people. I've made a few hundred bucks here and there but nothing to really note. For my next work I'm going the route of a .99 Ereader Novella. If I don't have success with that then I might just sell out and write some romance under a pen name. Currently, I write in the horror genre and cross with science fiction. It's a tough market and many readers only look at the established authors. I'm hoping the .99 angle might grant some exposure to my work and then go from there.


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## shadowwalker (Nov 21, 2011)

I'm not a believer in "Gloom and Doom". Commercial publishers don't have their heads in the sand re: e-publishing, print is not dying (it's been around for centuries and I expect it to continue for a while yet), and commercial publishers are not dummies who will go the way of the dodo bird - they adapt. New writers have the same opportunities they always did - why would agents/publishers refuse to refresh their inventory of writers? That doesn't make any sense at all. After all, established writers retire, slow down, and (unfortunately) die. What happens then? They close their doors? Don't think so.


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## John Brightman (Nov 21, 2011)

shadowwalker said:


> I'm not a believer in "Gloom and Doom". Commercial publishers don't have their heads in the sand re: e-publishing, print is not dying (it's been around for centuries and I expect it to continue for a while yet), and commercial publishers are not dummies who will go the way of the dodo bird - they adapt. New writers have the same opportunities they always did - why would agents/publishers refuse to refresh their inventory of writers? That doesn't make any sense at all. After all, established writers retire, slow down, and (unfortunately) die. What happens then? They close their doors? Don't think so.



I've found that some Librarians are very open to helping out a new writer. A local library was nice enough to purchase my book and keep it in their collection. The librarian then wanted me to speak at the library and introduced me to trade magazines where I might have some luck. Bascially, his sentiments were we always need new writers.


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## shadowwalker (Nov 21, 2011)

John Brightman said:


> Bascially, his sentiments were we always need new writers.



I don't think you'll find anyone in publishing who doesn't also believe that :smile:


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## Man From Mars (Nov 21, 2011)

I don't like to believe doom and gloom either, but one can't deny reality if the signs are there. The fact is, print was seeing negative growth even before the recession. From a market standpoint, print will never die. Just as the automobile did not make the horse extinct, the internet will not make print extinct. Even though I see print books becoming a novelty item, they'll still exist.

I wish it weren't true, but I'd be more inclined to accept that publishers are avoiding risk and therefore avoiding new authors. Publishers were going for serials before the recession as a way to make more money off a well-established intellectual property. I see the same happening still. Harry Potter, Twilight, Hunger Games, Game of Thrones, etc. are all series with established authors. In my experience, book stores have more books in their fiction section as part as a series then books that aren't. That made them money in the past, and I don't see that changing.

Unfortunately that doesn't bode well for new authors in this climate. Maybe I'm wrong; I sure wish I was. I'd love to talk to an insider about the state of print publishing, but their silence is deafening.

My plan so far is this: write my query, send it out to agents. If nothing comes back, then I'll just do it on my own. I have a business plan in mind, and I'll try to make it work.


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## shadowwalker (Nov 21, 2011)

Man From Mars said:


> I wish it weren't true, but I'd be more inclined to accept that publishers are avoiding risk and therefore avoiding new authors. Publishers were going for serials before the recession as a way to make more money off a well-established intellectual property. I see the same happening still. Harry Potter, Twilight, Hunger Games, Game of Thrones, etc. are all series with established authors. In my experience, book stores have more books in their fiction section as part as a series then books that aren't. That made them money in the past, and I don't see that changing.



I would ask again - what sense does it make for publishers not to look for new authors? To depend entirely on their established writers to keep them in business? To hope that these writers continue to put out the same number of books year after year - that they'll never retire, never get sick, never die? What about that makes *any *business sense whatsoever?

Is it tough getting commercially published? Of course it is. Is it impossible? Of course not. If you think publishers and agents aren't looking for new blood constantly, you've been reading the wrong blogs and listening to the wrong people.


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## Man From Mars (Nov 21, 2011)

shadowwalker said:


> I would ask again - what sense does it make for publishers not to look for new authors? To depend entirely on their established writers to keep them in business?


 
It makes a lot of sense from a business standpoint. Keeping authors that you know have quality, you know have a fan base, and you know can sell books is a smart idea. No publisher in their right mind would take on a lot of new talent when belts are tight. That doesn't mean they'll work their writers to the bone or that they won't find new talent. It just means that they are even more reluctant to find new talent than before.



shadowwalker said:


> Is it tough getting commercially published? Of course it is. Is it impossible? Of course not. If you think publishers and agents aren't looking for new blood constantly, you've been reading the wrong blogs and listening to the wrong people.



I hope I am wrong about this, but I haven't seen significant evidence otherwise. In any case, my immediate plan is to assume that I am wrong and send out my queries. It's true that I don't have all the information, but I do try to notice the trends. The trends, in my opinion, don't look good.


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## shadowwalker (Nov 21, 2011)

Well, bear in mind - because publishers certainly do - that even established authors write bombs. And I doubt that agents and publishers have signed writers they thought were crap or wouldn't make money. So yes, _maybe _it's tougher - but forget this idea that they aren't looking for new writers. It's like saying dairy farmers don't buy new cows when times are tough. That would just be shooting themselves in the foot.


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## movieman (Nov 22, 2011)

Right now the big publishers seem to be raking in the cash because they tied up so many e-book rights for a pittance in the past and the increased profits from e-books are more than compensating for the reduction in print sales.

The big question is whether they can continue to convince writers to take ~20% royalties through them when they could self-publish and get 70%.


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## shadowwalker (Nov 22, 2011)

That's always been the question for authors - let the publishers do the work and get their share for it, or take all that time, expense, and risk into their own hands and hope to break even.


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## movieman (Nov 22, 2011)

shadowwalker said:


> That's always been the question for authors - let the publishers do the work and get their share for it, or take all that time, expense, and risk into their own hands and hope to break even.



Except for several decades prior to the rise of e-books, there was pretty much no chance of being a successful fiction author if you self-published. Even if you had thousands of books printed you couldn't get them in many bookstores, so you were screwed.

Today anyone can upload a book to Amazon/Smashwords/B&N etc and make around four times as much money per book as they would selling it through a publisher. That's a huge change.


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## shadowwalker (Nov 22, 2011)

movieman said:


> Today anyone can upload a book to Amazon/Smashwords/B&N etc and make around four times as much money per book as they would selling it through a publisher. That's a huge change.



They may get more per book - but if they only sell a small percentage compared to what they might have via commercial publishing... No advance, costs out of pocket - they're going to have to sell a lot of books to come close to what a commercially published author will have in hand from day one (and that's not counting the additional income from the print version).


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## Man From Mars (Nov 22, 2011)

Thanks, movieman. That's some good information about publishers taking advantage of e-books early. It means they have some staying-power in the market, which is some good news for me as I try at the classic publishing route for my novel.

Personally, I don't mind taking 20% royalties if it means more people read/buy the novel. I'd rather lose a higher net gain if I can offset the risk.


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## movieman (Nov 23, 2011)

shadowwalker said:


> They may get more per book - but if they only sell a small percentage compared to what they might have via commercial publishing...



That depends. I've met plenty of people on the Net who claim to be making a few thousand dollars a month self-publishing e-books, and a number of previously trade-published writers who sell a lot more self-published books than they did in their trade-published career.



> No advance, costs out of pocket - they're going to have to sell a lot of books to come close to what a commercially published author will have in hand from day one (and that's not counting the additional income from the print version).



Note that the advance is probably paid out over several years, and the book will probably take a year to publish. So if you're getting a $5,000 advance as a new writer, you'd need to sell a littlte more than one e-book a day for four years at $3.99 to make the same amount of money in that time. Two books a day would cover any production costs and give you at least as much money at the end of those four years.


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## shadowwalker (Nov 23, 2011)

movieman said:


> That depends. I've met plenty of people on the Net who claim to be making a few thousand dollars a month self-publishing e-books, and a number of previously trade-published writers who sell a lot more self-published books than they did in their trade-published career.



Yeah, I've met a lot of people who make those same 'claims'. Seems like a "I saw it on the Internet so it must be true..." kind of thing.



movieman said:


> Note that the advance is probably paid out over several years, and the book will probably take a year to publish. So if you're getting a $5,000 advance as a new writer, you'd need to sell a littlte more than one e-book a day for four years at $3.99 to make the same amount of money in that time. Two books a day would cover any production costs and give you at least as much money at the end of those four years.



Over several years? 1-2 _maybe_, but I've yet to talk to any writers who've got their advance in more than 2-3 installments. The royalties could continue for years, if the advance paid out. And yes, it's _possible _to earn that $5K in four years (versus on signing) - and _possible _to recover production costs (does that include payment to author?) in four years (versus having no production costs at all). Anything is _possible_...


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## Robdemanc (Dec 11, 2011)

I think we are at a tipping point.  I see the future of ebooks getting much stronger, but on the downside copyright will be breached somehow unless the techies come up with a foolproof way of encrypting material until its paid for.

When I am at a point where I am ready to submit my work, I will go down the traditional route first like the OP said and then have a go at self publishing.


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