# Ponder The Unthinkable (pt33) Korea In Flames



## Winston (Apr 30, 2017)

That title was provocative on purpose.  Did it scare you?  It should.
Or are you one of those folks that sees The Korean Peninsula as a far away place that doesn't concern you?    We live in an interconnected world, where The Butterfly Effect causes many unforeseen outcomes.  Yes, you should care.

First, a brief history lesson.  For those of you that don't know, the Korean War did not end in 1953.  Hostilities were terminated and after lengthy negotiations, an armistice was signed.  The Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) was established.  Since '53, there has been a constantly manned, huge garrison of troops along that zone.  It is heavily mined and under close surveillance. Today, the North Korean Army (KPA) has hundreds of artillery pieces ready to rain death down upon Seoul at a moment's notice.

I was there a few decades ago.  There are huge anti-tank traps all along the flat upper area  of South Korea.   On highway overpasses, massive concrete blocks are poised to be blown into blocking position upon word of a North Korean attack.  They are still there today.

I've trained with numerous foreign militaries.  The South Koreans are some of the only soldiers I would want covering my back.  Why?  They GET it.  It's no game for them.  They realize that there is no option except success. In a war, they are fighting for their very existence.  Down their peninsula, only an ocean is at their back.  The Norkos would indiscriminately kill them, their families and destroy their society.  They HATE what South Korea stands for.  They would leave no opposition.

So, what do you see reported today?  A bunch of ineffective, unreliable medium range Norko missiles that make them look like a joke.
They are no joke.
Their equipment is mediocre at best.  Their training is... bad.  Their leadership is worse than their missiles.  But do not underestimate North Korean resolve.  From birth, North Koreans are taught to hate The West.  They are weaned on deprivation and hardship.  I have no doubt that, in combat, a North Korean soldier will fight with every fiber of their being.  To kill The Imperialists.  American, Japanese, Australians, they wouldn't care.  And they would not stop, until the peninsula is reunified under their rule.  

In fact, as noted above, they have not stopped.  It's just been a 64 year long cease-fire.

Back to those embarrassing North Korean missiles.  You may see them as a pathetic attempt at intimidation (which they are), but they are more.  They are a distraction, and effective misdirection.  As much as Kim Jong-un would love to nuke Oahu, or drop some Sarin gas on Tokyo, he knows that this will not happen.  The Norkos lack the sophistication and technical knowledge to make anything like that happen.  Period.  Seriously,  breathe easy now.

But those missiles are scary. And Kim is crazy, but he isn't stupid.  Neither are his generals.  Remember, the end-game is reunification.  Here is my take on how that WILL play out...

North Korea will bump-up it's rhetoric (again), only this time, begin to fully mobilize it's long range missile corps.   We (the US) will see this and deploy resources to neutralize their rockets.  Yes, we know that they are generally ineffective, but there are political and PR aspects to consider.  Meanwhile, they will mobilize their invasion army as clandestinely as they can (using their tunnels and deep-cover agents).  Their large submarine fleet will deploy into blocking positions.

When hostilities start, it will look like a massive Norko missile attack.  They will launch against Japan, Guam and perhaps Alaska and Hawaii.   Within the first few minutes, we will be shooting down their missiles (the ones that actually took off).   An hour or two later, we will launch retaliatory strikes against the launch areas.

With US naval and air forces engaged in anti-missile operations, North Korea will launch their ground invasion against The South.  We will only be able to provide limited tactical support to US and South Korean troops, as we are already committed to strategic missile launch site neutralization.     

The KPA will drive deep as quickly as possible.  It will take hours to redirect air and naval assets to ground support.  In as little as a day, the capital city of Seoul will be captured.  Thousands will die each day for the first few days (military and civilian).

By the second / third day, US & South Korean forces will be launching counter attacks to slow the KPA advance.   Bloody fighting will continue for a few more days.  It is my projection that the North Korean Army will push as far South as Suwon or even Cheongiu, midway down the peninsula.  At that point, US air power will be interdicting anything heading south to resupply the KPA.  They won't be able to drive any further south without fuel, food and munitions.  

Sounds good, right?  Just like 1950.  We push them back north, and return to our dysfunctional status quo.  Only that's not going to happen.

One likely scenario was postulated in Casper Weinberger's 1998 book "The Next War".  Once "lines" are established on the peninsula, and forces are massed, Kim Jong-un may decide to go nuclear, and open-up a "hole".  Literally, blow-open a hole in the US / South Korean defensive line with a nuke.  Let me address your three objections:   

First, we have no appropriate, proportional response.  If he uses a tactical nuke, are we going escalate and bomb Pyongyang? (no).  It's a free shot.
Second, we have air superiority.  How does he "launch" a nuke?  He doesn't.  It is driven down the peninsula in an unmarked supply truck.  Hell, even a cart pulled by oxen.    
Third, it's a nuke, right?  That's radioactive?  SO?!  Radiation usually takes days or weeks to kill.  The KPA army will march straight through the smoldering, glowing crater southward.  They will take and hold more ground.  And in a 'numbers game', we will still lose more troops overall.  But probably still not lose our position on the peninsula.

Oh, but this gets worse...

When it starts getting bad for the KPA (and they eventually will), North Korea will play their ultimate Ace.  In one or more of the captured South Korean cities (perhaps even Seoul), they will have brought in nukes.  Again, via truck, submarine or oxen.  Kim Jong-un will literally dictate the "peace terms".   As of today, it is estimated that North Korea has 10 to 13 nuclear devices.  If they can transport half of them down, that's five or six South Korean cities held hostage.  They could even just blow one off to demonstrate their resolve.  And probably would. 

In the end, the US and South Korea may be able to negotiate a rump-state of a few square miles down around Pusan.  Or, the whole peninsula may be reunified under the banner of The Democratic People's Republic of Korea.  It's hard to say how China would respond to such events, but I'm thinking they'd be much happier with a Korea unified under the North than visa versa.  

Nightmare scenario?  Yep.  And totally possible.  Perhaps not probable.  The leadership of North Korea loves the lifestyle they currently enjoy, on the backs of their starving masses.  But hey, it's good to be king!  Although it's even better to be Emperor of the United Korea.  The smoke and radioactive fallout would eventually settle.  People forget, and move on.  The ones that survived, that is.  

Circling back, what would this look like for the average American?  First, you could count on a short-term financial crisis as the world's third largest economy (Japan) is threatened.  Trade would be seriously disrupted, as would travel.  Port and airline security would cripple normal commerce.  Cyber attacks against the US would be attempted, and some maybe even successful.  The Chinese may even launch a few of their own, as a low-intensity opportunistic probes (and frame the NorKos).  But, as I said earlier, don't worry about Seattle in flames.   

It's the long-term effects that are real scary.  The world stage would be completely altered.  We may live to see the implementation of nuclear terrorism.  The US would have to completely reassess it's strategic priorities and capabilities in the Western Pacific.  The winners would be China and Russia, both of whom could exert more influence in the region.  Western styled democracies would have to make some tough, practical choices regarding their survival.  

This is an admitted departure from the spirit of most of my "Ponder The Unthinkable" series.  I usually offer more practical "tactical" advice.  There's only one real take-away here.  You do not live in a bubble.  What happens "over there" matters.  If (when) there is a regional conflict, banks may shut down.  Grocery stores and gas stations stop being supplied.  For days.  Maybe weeks.  It isn't about what you can do regarding Korea.  It's what you can do about you.
Think about that, and do something now.  Not when you're already hungry and scared.
And Pray for Peace.  Just don't expect it.


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